By Tony Obiechina, Abuja
Nigeria’s gross international reserves are projected to rise to $62bn by 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflecting improving external sector fundamentals and strengthening macroeconomic stability following a series of economic reforms.
The projection, contained in the IMF’s latest economic outlook for Nigeria, showed that the country’s reserves are expected to increase from $40.2bn in 2024 to $45.8bn in 2025, $58.1bn in 2026 and $62bn in 2027.
The Fund also forecast a steady improvement in reserve adequacy, with reserves expected to cover 10.2 months of prospective imports by 2027, up from 7.7 months in 2024. The stronger reserve position is expected to provide greater protection against external shocks and support confidence in the foreign exchange market.
The IMF attributed the positive outlook largely to rising crude oil production, stronger export earnings and the impact of ongoing reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and attracting investment.
According to the report, Nigeria’s crude oil production is projected to increase from 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 to 1.71 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.75 million barrels per day in 2027.
Oil and gas GDP is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027.
The Fund also projected that Nigeria’s economy would maintain a stable growth trajectory over the medium term.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to expand by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, compared with an estimated growth rate of 4.0 per cent in 2025.
Growth is expected to be broad-based, with non-oil GDP projected to rise by 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027.
The non-oil, non-agricultural sector, which includes industries such as telecommunications, financial services and manufacturing, is expected to record even stronger growth of 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 5.0 per cent in 2027.
A major highlight of the IMF outlook is the anticipated moderation in inflation. Average consumer inflation, which stood at 33.2 per cent in 2024, is projected to decline to 23 per cent in 2025 and further to 16 per cent in 2026.
Inflation is expected to ease slightly to 15.9 per cent in 2027, reflecting tighter monetary conditions and improved supply-side conditions.The report also projected significant expansion in the size of the economy. Nigeria’s nominal GDP is expected to increase from N442tn in 2025 to N529tn in 2026 and N618tn by 2027. Similarly, nominal GDP per capita is forecast to rise from $1,223 in 2025 to $1,556 in 2026.
Investment activity is also expected to strengthen. Total investment is projected to rise from 17.2 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 20.3 per cent in 2026 and 20.4 per cent in 2027, driven by higher public infrastructure spending and increased private sector participation.
Despite the favourable outlook, the IMF cautioned that fiscal pressures remain significant. Federal Government interest payments are projected to absorb more than half of government revenues through 2027, underscoring the need for sustained fiscal reforms and stronger revenue mobilisation.
Nevertheless, the Fund expects Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to remain relatively moderate at about 35 to 37 per cent over the projection period, while continued reserve accumulation, easing inflation and stronger economic growth are expected to reinforce macroeconomic stability and support the country’s long-term development prospects.
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