By O’tega ‘The Tiger’ Ogra and Fredrick Nwabufo
In political economy, the boundary between politics and markets is porous. Nations rise or stagnate based on how well the two spheres negotiate a common language of growth. For Nigeria, this consensus is not academic. It has become existential.
Around the world, economic transformation has rarely occurred in a vacuum. Capital finds expansion, growth, and profit where policy is visionary, stable, and conducive. Whether in post-war Germany or 1980s Southeast Asia, capital found its wings only when policy cleared the runway — just as much of the other economic advancement recorded in history have their fount in the disciplined communion of capital and authority. Where governments have embraced market logic, anchored stability, and created the architecture for enterprise, growth took off.
Nigeria is at such a moment.
Fostering public-private sector collaboration and consensus is crucial for economic prosperity. Government is in the business of ensuring law and order, investing in and providing systems that promote the common good, as well as creating and implementing policies that strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals.
But at the critical cellular level, particularly as regards job creation and within certain micro-economic orbits, the private sector is critical.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s first President with superlative private-sector experience and achievements, implemented transformative reforms in cognisance of the seminality of the private sector to development. The twin curative remedies — fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange market unification — have not only reset the macro-economy but also architected a path for sustainable development, breaking away from the old, capricious, and parlous order.
In the words of a global financial institution, these reforms are “structurally significant”, correcting years of fiscal distortion, and positioning Nigeria for long-term macroeconomic resilience. For once, global capital is responding to policy signals from Nigeria, not political speculation.
Today, the economy is in steady recovery, with the private sector posting billions of naira in profit, more jobs created, infrastructure expanding, and many more economic frontiers and opportunities opening up across diverse sectors of the economy.
Inflation eased from 33.7 percent in April 2024 to 28.3 percent in March 2025, and the nation recorded a net foreign exchange reserve of $23 billion as of December 2024 — the strongest position in over three years.
Real GDP grew 3.0% (YoY) in Q1 2024 to 3.19%, 3.46%, and 3.84% respectively in Q2, Q3, and Q4. The actual GDP growth rate improved to 3.4% in 2024 from 2.74% in 2023. The actual nominal GDP for the year 2024 was ₦274.67 trillion, surpassing the projected target of ₦236.3 trillion by 16.3%.
Foreign portfolio inflows also increased by over $2 billion year-on-year, as clarity returned to monetary policy. Moody’s revised Nigeria’s outlook from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’ — citing stronger reform credibility and improved external buffers.
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) collected a record ₦21.66 trillion in 2024, achieving 111.6% of its revenue target, with non-oil taxes exceeding targets by 28% and contributing 73.4% of total revenue.
We posted $6.83 billion balance of payments surplus in 2024, and our external reserves increased by $6.0 billion to $40.19 billion by the end of 2024. We maintain a healthy balance sheet, meet our financial obligations, plug leakages through digitisation, and channel funds to critical sectors.
In June 2025, Nigeria’s main stock market index, the NSE-All Share, reached an all-time high of 114,616.75 points, with investor confidence buoyed and restored.
Last Thursday, the President inaugurated the Lekki Deep Seaport Access Road at the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Plant. During his speech, he recognised four distinguished business leaders – Aliko Dangote, Femi Otedola, Jim Ovia, and Abdul Samad Rabiu. He described them as the “four wisemen” of Nigeria’s private sector.
“I landed here with four wisemen. I will say wise men. Jim Ovia of reputable Zenith Bank, who has been acknowledged worldwide. Femi Otedola, my baby brother. Samad Rabiu of BUA. And I believe the wisest of them all, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, who is so daring in thinking, doing, and believing in his own country,” he said.
He also commended the Minister of Works, Roland and Gilbert Chagoury, and Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede.
There is a consensus of opinion among Nigerian business leaders and among most Nigerians. And that is, the economy is on a stable, propitious, and vibrant trajectory.
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In a treatise titled, ‘Two years of President Tinubu: A business perspective’, Abdul Samad Rabiu, the founder and Chairman, BUA Group, commended the bold decisions taken by the President, describing them as some of the most important decisions taken by any administration.
He said: “So for me, what has this administration done, right? First, it removed the fuel subsidy, which was the biggest economic scam in our history. Second, it unified the foreign exchange market, and third, it restored stability, fairness, and confidence in the economy. These are the foundations of growth. Nigeria is full of potential. With the right leadership, which we now have, there is no limit to what we can achieve.”
Other business leaders, such as Dangote, Otedola, and Tony Elumelu, are also unanimous in their opinion about the return of ebulliency to the economy and the private sector.
For instance, Dangote said this of the President’s leadership at the inauguration of the Lekki Deep Seaport Access Road: “Your leadership has been both decisive and reassuring and your actions have reignited hope for a prosperous Nigeria of today and of the future. From the very start of the administration, your Excellency has worked tirelessly to foster an enabling environment for private sector-led growth.”
This alignment of domestic reform with international investment logic is rekindling interest from sovereign funds, private equity groups, and global development partners alike.
Fundamentally, creating and sustaining a salubrious environment for businesses to grow is how nations thrive. That is what the Tinubu administration is not relenting on.
And this matters globally. Today, as economic power is shifting across the world and new alliances are being formed, Nigeria’s reforms are not just local corrections. They are increasingly seen as continental signals. With political courage at the helm and private capital as co-pilot, Nigeria is not just betting on itself. It is inviting the world to bet on Nigeria.
O’tega ‘The Tiger’ Ogra and Fredrick Nwabufo are Senior Special Assistants to the President of Nigeria
