***Strengthen confidence in CPI data
By Tony Obiechina, Abuja
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in collaboration with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), on Monday, 12 January 2026, convened a high-level stakeholder sensitisation workshop to provide clarity on Nigeria’s inflation dynamics ahead of the release of the December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The engagement took place amid heightened public discourse and expectations around a possible spike in the December inflation figure following the 2025 CPI rebasing. While inflation moderated to 14 percent in November 2025, analysts have projected that the December figure may show a temporary increase driven largely by base effects associated with CPI computation, rather than a deterioration in underlying economic or structural conditions.
Opening the session, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, emphasised the importance of proactive engagement and transparent communication around official statistics, particularly during periods of methodological transition.
“Inflation remains one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. In periods of methodological transition such as CPI rebasing, it is critical that data producers engage stakeholders early, explain what the numbers mean, and ensure that interpretation is grounded in sound economic reasoning,” Dr. Aduloju said.
He noted that the session forms part of NESG’s broader citizen sensitisation and advocacy efforts aimed at improving confidence in official statistics and supporting informed decision-making across the public and private sectors. Dr. Aduloju further thanked the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of NBS, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, for sustaining a platform for technical engagement as Nigeria’s economy transitions from stabilisation to consolidation reforms.
According to Dr. Aduloju, while headline inflation often serves as an alarm during periods of crisis, the consolidation phase of macroeconomic reforms requires a deeper focus on inflation structure, basket composition, and cost drivers across the economy. He stressed that credible CPI statistics are essential for policy coherence, guiding monetary policy calibration, informing fiscal planning, shaping wage negotiations, influencing investment decisions, and underpinning social protection frameworks.
He cautioned that misleading inflation signals at this stage could reverse hard-won reform gains, noting that transparent and methodologically sound data remain a critical confidence-building tool for sustaining reforms and attracting long-term capital.
Setting the broader context, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that any anticipated movement in the December 2025 inflation figure would be largely technical in nature.
“The expected uptick in the December inflation figure, if observed, would be driven primarily by base effects arising from the CPI rebasing exercise. Such movements do not necessarily signal worsening inflationary pressures or structural weaknesses in the economy,” Prince Adeniran stated.
He reaffirmed NBS’s commitment to transparency, full methodological disclosure, and the preservation of the integrity and credibility of Nigeria’s official statistics, stressing that engagements of this nature are essential for sustaining trust and reducing misinterpretation of inflation data.
Prince Adeniran further explained that the 2025 CPI rebasing followed a 15-year gap, with the previous rebasing conducted in 2009 instead of the recommended five-year cycle. This long interval resulted in significant changes to the CPI basket, which now comprises 934 products, including 404 newly introduced items, while over 200 products were removed due to changes in consumption patterns. These structural changes, he noted, created technical challenges in linking the new CPI series with the old one, particularly for year-on-year inflation measurement.
Providing a detailed technical presentation, Dr. Ayo Anthony, a senior technical expert at the National Bureau of Statistics, explained the mechanics of CPI computation, base effects, and expectations around the December 2025 inflation data. He noted that linking a rebased CPI with over 900 products across 13 COICOP divisions to an older series with fewer products and classifications inevitably presents methodological challenges.
Dr. Anthony explained that while NBS initially adopted a 12-month linking factor using December 2024 as the index reference period to maintain continuity, this approach—combined with the expanded CPI basket, adoption of a new classification structure, and prevailing inflationary pressures during the rebasing period—has generated pronounced base effects that could result in an artificial spike in December 2025 inflation.
To address this, he disclosed that NBS has adopted a normalisation approach, consistent with international best practice as outlined in the 2020 CPI Manual, by maximising the index reference period from a single month to a 12-month average. Under this approach, the average CPI for January to December 2024, rather than December alone, will serve as the reference period. This adjustment, he noted, will significantly reduce base-effect distortions and ensure that the published inflation figure more accurately reflects current price movements and macroeconomic realities.
Dr. Anthony also highlighted the robustness of Nigeria’s CPI framework, noting its comprehensive urban and rural coverage, adoption of the 2018 COICOP classification, updated price reference period, and the production of multiple sub-indices including food, energy, services, and core inflation which enhance the relevance and credibility of Nigeria’s inflation statistics within the region.
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The workshop featured a robust interactive session moderated by Dr. Faith Iyoha, Senior Economist at NESG, during which participants from the private sector, policy institutions, academia, and civil society engaged NBS officials on inflation measurement, data interpretation, and policy implications.
The workshop forms part of NBS’s broader strategy to enhance transparency, stakeholder engagement, and trust in official statistics, while supporting informed policy dialogue and private sector planning in Nigeria.
