Until last week or so, citizens observing political developments in Nigeria had given up on the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a party that was in power for the first 16 years of this republic. The party was so decimated that within the last two years, when the ruling APC under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu took charge, about 140 prominent opposition members have defected to the APC, based on statistics given by Bamidele Atoyebi, Convener of BAT Ideological Group. Among them are governors of Akwa Ibom and Delta states, the entire Edo state lawmakers, 27 Rivers state lawmakers and powerful politicians like Minister Nyesom Wike who has one leg in PDP and another in APC.
So bad was the PDP situation that when the African Democratic Congress (ADC) emerged, it was mainly from the supposed ashes of PDP and aggrieved APC members. Most of the faces at the ADC outing are people who had played significant roles in the PDP’s 16-year rule, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors, ministers and others. A few weeks ago, the ruling APC was super-excited about their gains; the new baby of the moment, ADC was being celebrated and touted as an effective opposition party; those who lost out in the power dynamics viewed the ADC as a viable vehicle to jump on and realise their ambitions. PDP was considered a dead horse.
Suddenly that dead horse seems to be kicking again, woken from a long slumber by the kick-started breath of one man, symbolised by the alleged second coming of ex-president Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan has not said a word; his body language does not betray anything yet, but the polity is already stirred and abuzz about the prospect of his presidential candidacy.
The Jonathan story seems to be gaining traction. Those who had signed up for ADC are developing cold feet. Are we about to witness another major political realignment? Is Jonathan going to run? Is he qualified legally speaking? Can he defeat the man who tormented him to submission and defeat, and rattle the apple cart? Are political juggernauts like Atiku and Peter Obi in a fix? How will they fit into the unfolding dynamics? I have no idea; I do not have all the answers. One thing is certain though: interesting times are ahead of us.
Before Jonathan came into reckoning this time, PDP was faltering—all is still not well with the party having been hijacked by persons working for the ruling party. If the political class under the PDP umbrella thinks of Jonathan as a safe option for the giant with clay feet, how is he a safe option for Nigerians? For a man that was so vilified, called names and thrown to the dustbin of history, now being propped up, rebranded and seen as a possible option, is an indication of a yawning gap in our current governance structure. All over the country and on social media, the feeling of nostalgia, of a lost chance, of time past when families could afford three square meals without breaking the bank, a time when money had value, and they could drive to fuel stations and fill their cars have all become front-burner conversations.
Nigerians were hungry for a change and got one. What then has changed when the former president and Nigeria’s dysfunctional society have not changed? I do not see the groundswell of support for Jonathan as validation of an ambition, but rather as an exigency of the moment. This moment. Therefore we must interrogate issues beyond the personal ambitions of recycled leadership. What will Jonathan do differently if he holds the aces as the PDP seems to be envisaging? What do Atiku and Obi have to offer beyond what they told us in 2023?
With regards to Jonathan, Nigerians are not asking for much; they wouldn’t mind if he could just reenact his past. Recall the 2012 fuel subsidy removal protest spearheaded by the current men of power and Jonathan was forced to capitulate, in contrast with how President Tinubu decreed the same bitter pills of fuel subsidy removal on his swearing-in rostrum. That pronouncement and the subsequent devaluation of the Naira altered our lives since then, such that not even social programmes, palliatives and CNG revolution to cushion the effect of that one “bad decision” have been able to reverse it. Those two policies have also changed the perception Nigerians had of Tinubu, and they are now questioning their judgment. But Tinubu’s support base won’t hear of it. I can’t question their tenacity, but our reality is to the contrary.
Jonathan has kept a low profile since leaving office. His gentle mien, legendary humility, being the first incumbent to concede defeat in Nigeria—Jonathan has carved his niche. A combination of all these makes him a powerhouse and a force for good on the African continent. Starting out as an underdog, disruptor, and quite unexpectedly, he became a celebrated Nigerian and African statesman, becoming UN Global Crisis Envoy, Chairperson of International Summit Council for Peace and Special Envoy-Mediator on Malian protests.
Despite these, how could Jonathan be an answer to the country’s desperate situation? Talk about a rejected stone becoming a cornerstone? Too early to tell anyway, but the thought of it seems anomalous.
Going practical, how will Jonathan fare in the face of contending forces? Agitations from the North and the Atiku, Obi challenges are difficult nuts to crack. As a former president, it will be embarrassing for Jonathan to run and lose. If the PDP concedes to Jonathan and offers their ticket unchallenged, squaring up with the ruling party’s master strategist like Tinubu would be a Herculean task. Not when at least 30 federal lawmakers, and many state assemblies including Rivers, Edo and local/grassroots opposition politicians have crossed over to the ruling party citing divisions and crises in their own parties, even as the APC controls 23 out of 36 states with their governors fully in charge to cause considerable harm to Jonathan’s bid.
Meanwhile, if the former president throws his hat in the ring, he might be an answer for the South’s insistence on completing their eight-year tenure now informally institutionalised, despite the onslaught and push-back from the North on the basis of Tinubu’s alleged nepotistic appointments, even after giving the president the winning votes of about 64 percent.
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Second, even though the North, in cahoots with the South West, was instrumental to Jonathan’s defeat in 2015 through the Buhari factor, the North might be more comfortable with a Jonathan comeback than a Tinubu continuity. The Nigerian political landscape is full of thorns, surprises and uncertainties that require adeptness and workable strategies to navigate through. Jonathan surely needs to do some introspection.
He must have self-doubts though: whether to run out of conviction, whether he has solutions to Nigeria’s myriad of problems or pressures from loyalists and PDP members eager to rebuild their sinking ship. In a book written by Manasseh Azure Awuni whose review I read last week, Ghana president John Mahama has this to say: “All the decisions I have made in my life were regularly plagued with doubts. What I have learned from my experiences is that the possibility of danger lurks at the very edge of all of life’s decisions. So too does the potential for the most exhilarating ride of your life.”
Win or lose, Jonathan has nothing to worry about; he only needs courage in his own convictions. He’s already made a name for his peaceful disposition and democratic credentials, admired for his humility, tolerance and politics without bitterness. Who knows what providence has in store for him?
Zainab Suleiman Okino (FNGE) is a syndicated columnist. She can be reached via: zainabokino@gmail.com
