APC Primary And The Risk of Yahaya Bello Candidacy, By Muhammad Mika’il

It’s few months to elections in Kogi State. As it has been the norm over time, the incumbent has picked a nomination form in an attempt to retain the governorship seat. However, he is not the only one to have done so. Former Chief of Naval staff Admiral Usman Jibrin has also joined the race under the flagship of the ruling All progressives Congress APC.
 In the same vein, Mohammed Abubakar Audu, Mustapha Mona Audu, Abubakar Ibrahim Ibro; all sons of former governors of the state in person of Late Prince Abubakar Audu and former governor Ibrahim Idris Ibro respectively are also in the race leading to the November 2019 general election. The number of aspirants as at latest count has reached a mind bugling 40+ in the APC alone, not to talk of aspirants from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party and other political parties.
The number of candidates that have indicated interest by purchasing nomination forms in the APC has raised some internal party concerns and set tongues waggling. These issues have ranged from warring state party executives of the Hadi Ametuo led committee against the Governor-backed executive, the system of party primary to adopt; whether direct or indirect primary to the allegation that the incumbent governor had sponsored other candidates to join the race in a bid to swing party primary decision in his favour. Irrespective of the choice of primary adopted, one could be tempted to analyse the possibilities of the outcome and the chances of the incumbent at the primary election. This is because of the outcry of kogites and Nigerians who have paid keen attention to happenings in the state within the last four years.
 Kogi state as many have come to accept is among the worst performing in the country at the moment as civil servants are owed 38 months of salaries resulting in untold hardships, want, starvation and deprivation in the lives of workers in the state. A Director in the Kogi State Civil Service at some point committed suicide when he couldn’t pay for his wife’s medical bills after the birth of their triplets as he struggled to cater for his family up until that very fateful moment. This is not taking away the weakening institutions, heightened thuggery and massive infrastructural decay in the State.  
The real question now should be whether the ruling All Progressive Congress would be willing to take the risk of putting forward the incumbent Yahaya Bello as the party flag bearer at the general elections. This is because a similar situation played out in Bauchi and Adamawa States where the party performed woefully, resulting in the defeat of the incumbent governors who flew the flag of the APC. 
Notably, in Adamawa a ranking Senator Binta Masi Garba lost her seat to Senator Elisha Abbo whose name made headlines weeks ago over his assault of a nursing mother in an Abuja adult toys shop. Some have attributed this to a lack of a proper ground research and opinion poll from the APC to feel the pulse of the people and understand their strengths and weaknesses before fielding the candidates. 
Kogi presents a similar scenario where the incumbent Yahaya Bello has a lot on his scorecard. From huge debt of salaries and pensions owed civil servants despite several allocations from the federal government, tranches of Paris club refund, and series of bailout funds to the state through allegations of massive corruption and embezzlement, decaying infrastructure, heightened thuggery, weakening institutions to a rather tense relationship with the Chief Judge of the state, a near absent relationship with his deputy and a breakaway faction of the APC.
 To his credit though, the APC was declared winner of all 21 seats in the last state assembly elections even though there were allegations of sharp electoral malpractices; violence, voter intimidation, vote buying, stuffing of ballot boxes and use of security agencies to subvert the will of the people. Also, effort at getting Hadi Ametuo who leads the break-away faction seems to be yielding positive results. He may also convince some of the aspirants to abandon their candidacy and join his team. In the same vein, the traditional rulers in Kogi State have endorsed Yahaya’s candidature and event went as far as the meeting with the President at the Aso Villa as an indication of their endorsement. Meanwhile, Prince Mustapha Mona Audu has declared that he has the capacity to unseat Yahaya Bello and govern Kogi State.
While all this has been going on, the former Navy Chief Usman Jibrin has also toured the state in an attempt to woo voters and garner support for his gubernatorial ambition. He brings with him wealth of experience, strength and tact of a Navy Chief spanning more than three decades. He has been said to enjoy massive support from the APC National hierarchy.  Equally, former Director General of the Nigeria Space Research and Development Agency Professor Seidu Onailo Mohammed is in the race and is willing to see it through to a conclusive end.
Already, there have been reports of protests and disagreements from the other aspirants contesting the decision of the APC Kogi State chapter to adopt indirect/delegate system of primary while pushing for the adoption of direct primaries. Recall that the APC Lagos State chapter adopted the direct primaries which led to the emergence of current Governor Babajide Sanwoolu and an end to the one tenure of former governor Akinwummi Ambode. 
At the end of the day, who enters the ‘Lugard House’ as the next governor of Kogi State for the next four years will be decided by the people of Kogi State through their votes and INEC should do everything within its power as provided for in the electoral act and the Nigerian constitution to ensure that every vote count. 
Mika’il writes from Abuja