Former Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Raji Fashola, took to the podium last week to call the attention of the leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC), to the growing disaffection within the ruling party. At an enlarged Lagos APC stakeholders’ forum where President Bola Tinubu was endorsed for a second term, Fashola queried why the number of votes garnered by the party in the state has been on a steady decline since 2011. The former Minister also expressed curiosity about whether the party maintains a meticulously documented registry for its members, which could facilitate voter engagement and mobilization.
He said: “In earlier times, our nearest competitor would gather roughly one-third of the total votes we received. That was the historical context. So, what has occurred? Why has there been a decline in votes? This is the crux of the matter. Numerous statistics exist, yet I prefer not to delve into scrutinizing all of those figures. Where have our traditional voters gone? Are they still allied with us? Are they participating in our voting efforts? And if not, why are they not appearing in sufficient numbers? This moment calls for sincere answers and candid inquiries, and I trust these questions will be raised again after this gathering by individuals committed to galvanizing voter turnout for the upcoming election.”
Then, he delved into the policies of the APC’s administration and wondered whether they have benefited the masses. Hear him: “Some pertinent questions to also consider include whether our policies and initiatives still resonate with our foundational supporters. What does our party’s reward structure look like? How do we even connect with one another? I have questioned whether, if we wished to launch a particular initiative that involved a specific group of tradespeople, do we possess a register to consult regarding which party members might be interested in participating? Such inquiries are crucial, as this conference urges us to reflect, because political engagement hinges on passion. When people are enthusiastic about a cause, they will show up and cast their votes. Nevertheless, all hope is not lost; we find ourselves in a period of renewed optimism, and we are determined to translate this rejuvenated hope into heightened enthusiasm for our party and its programs.”
He was not yet done. He also spoke on youth disenchantment with the party. “Several speakers before me have touched upon the expanding demographics of our youth. How many of our children are engaged in our endeavours? How many of our offspring attend our rallies and campaigns? If it holds significance for us, we must instill that importance within them and find avenues to connect them to our mission. Ultimately, who would we entrust our legacy to, but them?”
Indeed, Fashola has raised several questions which I hope the leadership of the party at the state and national levels would treat with all the seriousness they deserve. Presently, the party seems to be strong on paper, attracting and receiving several new members from other political parties across the country, in the build up to the 2027 general elections. State Governors, Senators, and members of the House of Representatives are all finding a home under the umbrella of the APC. But truth be told, the APC may go the way of the PDP within the next couple of years unless urgent actions are taken to address most of the concerns raised by Fashola. No one needs to be told that Governors and members of the National Assembly decamping to the APC are doing so for their self-preservation. It is the party in power and that is where the honey presently flows.
The fact that they are in control of the machinery of governance at the state level automatically makes them leaders of the party in their respective states. Older members of the party met on ground are pushed to the background. If Tinubu and APC leaders feel that there is peace, it must be that of the graveyard.
Fashola spoke on the declining number of votes garnered by the party in recent elections. He is right. He was elected on the banner of the now defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2007, with a total vote of 599,300 votes, defeating his closest rival, Musiliu Obanikoro of the PDP, who garnered 383, 956 votes. However, in 2011, and due to his superlative performance during his first term, Fashola secured 1,509,113 votes to defeat Shamsideen Adegboye of the PDP, who scored 300,450 votes. That was the zenith of the party in the state, as Fashola was able to spread developments to all the nooks and crannies of Lagos state.
The irony of the whole development was the fact that he was almost denied a second term ticket as his political godfather, Tinubu, believed that he (Fashola) was about to outshine him in politics. That was when he made one of his famous quotes – ‘May our loyalty not be tested’
Akinwunmi Ambode, who took over from him in 2015, secured only 811,994 votes to defeat Jimi Agbaje of the PDP, who secured 659,788 votes. Sanwo-Olu was elected Governor in 2019, winning with 739,445 votes (66 per cent) of the total votes cast to defeat Agbaje of the PDP, who secured 206,141 votes. Again in 2023, Sanwo-Olu got 762,134 votes to defeat Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the Labour Party, who secured 312,329 votes (27 per cent) and Jide Adediran of the PDP, who got 62,000 votes (5 per cent).
The above figures show that Lagos, Nigeria’s most cosmopolitan city and the state with the highest number of eligible voters, continued its trend of low voter turnout. It recorded an abysmal 19 per cent voter turnout in the last general elections. The state was just a little above southeastern Abia and Enugu states, where turnout was 18 per cent. As it was in Lagos, so also it was in most parts of the country. In fact, participation was worse in Rivers State, with only 15 per cent of the people turning out to vote in the oil-rich state amid reports of violence.
Again, only 24.9 million voters – about 29 per cent of the registered voters – turned out for the 25 February 2023 presidential elections. Yet, 93 million voters were registered to vote, and 87 million voters were eligible, having collected their voter’s cards. Data collated by INEC shows that voter turnout was slightly higher during the governorship election, with 31 per cent participation across the 28 states. However, the participation was still abysmal, with 3 out of 10 people who registered and collected their voting cards casting their ballots.
In addition, data from INEC shows that Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, and Rivers states had the highest number of registered voters ahead of the 2023 election. However, none of these states were among the top five states with the highest voter turnout. In all the 28 states that participated in the governorship election, less than half of the eligible population turned out to vote. Only four states had a voter turnout above 40 per cent – all of them in Northern Nigeria. Jigawa State in the north-west had a turnout of 45 per cent, Adamawa State in the north-east had a 43 per cent turnout, followed by Sokoto State in the north-west with 41 per cent. Plateau State had 40 per cent, the highest in the north-central region.
In what is a reflection of higher voter turnout in Northern Nigeria compared to the South, for the governorship elections, the trio of Gombe, Katsina, and Kebbi states each recorded 39 per cent turnout, while the duo of Bauchi and Zamfara states put up a 38 per cent turnout. This was followed by Kaduna – 37 per cent, Nasarawa – 36 per cent, Taraba – 36 per cent, Kano – 35 per cent and Niger – 33 per cent.
Oyo State, where governor Seyi Makinde sought re-election, had the highest turnout in Southern Nigeria. Oyo, in the south-west, had a turnout of 31 per cent. It was followed by Akwa Ibom – 30 per cent, Kwara – 30 per cent, and Yobe – 30 per cent. Election participation in Benue and Ogun states was 29 per cent each. On the other hand, Cross River had 27 per cent, followed by Borno at 26 per cent; Delta at 22 per cent; and Ebonyi, at 22 per cent. Ebonyi, where a new Governor was elected to replace outgoing Governor, David Umahi, had the highest turnout in the south-east.
Indeed, why should voters turn out to vote? What does Fashola expect? That people who are hungry and angry should troop out in large numbers to vote for a party that has done little or nothing regarding their welfare? Since Tinubu’s government came on board, the prices of goods and services have more than doubled without corresponding increase in the people’s purchasing power.
Even die-hard APC card carrying members have nothing to show for their efforts. In Oshodi/Isolo Local government area, during the 2023 presidential elections, many APC members openly canvassed and voted for the candidate of the Labour party, Peter Obi, during the presidential poll. But 24 hours after the victory and at celebration time, many of them were shocked when the Igbo among them hijacked the celebration and turned it into an Igbo affair. That was when many of them had a rethink and grudgingly returned to the party to cast their ballots for Sanwo-Olu during the governorship poll. This is not a tale told to me by a third party. I witnessed the whole scenario first hand. Their anger stemmed from the fact that an unpopular candidate was imposed on them at the local level.
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Candidate imposition has been the bane of the APC for a very long time in Lagos state, as it was in many other states across the country. Tinubu, who now presides over the affairs of the country, has been the chief imposter on the APC in Lagos since 1999. His actions and inactions have contributed significantly to the disenchantment and voter apathy currently witnessed in Lagos and many south west states. With opposition Governors and Senators now moving to the party in droves, many old and loyal members would be shoved aside once again.
The party needs to do a soul search as canvassed by Fashola, and work out how to take care of its old and loyal members. The party’s policies and programmes must also have a human face, so that life won’t be so tough for the masses. Agreed that its economic reforms may yield a better tomorrow, the APC as a party in power should see to how to ameliorate the suffering of poor Nigerians across the country. The party should also devise a meaningful way of connecting with the youth. That is when they will identify with the APC. Fashola has raised a series of posters for the party and now is the time for those leading the APC to wake up. If not, they should be ready to smell the coffee soon.
See you next week.
