INTRODUCTION
Let me begin by expressing my sincere thanks to Realnews Magazine for the invitation to deliver its Sixth Anniversary Lecture under the theme “Political Transitions and Africa’s Economic Development”. I would like, especially to thank the Publisher and Editor, Ms Maureen Chigbo, for the invitation, and also wish to use this opportunity to acknowledge the excellent professional job she and her team are doing at Realnews.
The topic I have been asked to speak on today reminds me of the debate over the economic implications of democracy in Africa. We cannot also forget in a hurry the passion generated on our university campuses in the mid-1980s when the neo-liberal policy of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) was introduced by Governments in many African countries struggling with economic decline and the resistance mounted by especially the organised labour, students and the urban poor. Like many of you in the audience, I followed with a keen interest the evolution of political transitions or transfer of power in our continent and the debate, often ideological, at the time. However, I am unsure if this is the right forum to rehearse the intellectual discourse already well-articulated in numerous studies by scholars, especially historians and social scientists.
Going by the quality and vast experience of the array of economic experts assembled here by the Realnews Management, we are assured of incisive analysis during the panel discussion on the economic dimension of the political transition in Africa. My presentation will therefore not focus on the nexus between economic development and political stability generally. Instead, I will dwell more on my immediate responsibility of managing elections in Nigeria that we all hope will consolidate our democracy, stabilise the polity and propel the nation to greater economic prosperity.
At the risk of stating the obvious, let me say that INEC is deeply committed to democratic elections in the belief that the outcome can contribute to political stability and consolidation of democracy, which will foster rapid economic progress. This belief informs the conscious and focused preparations for the 2019 elections holding in just 93 days from today. Beyond Nigeria, the same principle guides my role in ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions (ECONEC), whose rotating presidency I presently hold. It is significant to point out that for the first time ever, all the countries in our sub-region are democracies holding periodic elections.
POLITICAL TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The African continent has experienced political transitions since the late 1980s. This transition from various forms of authoritarian rule range from military dictatorships in Nigeria, Ghana and Togo to one-party rule in Zambia, Malawi and Kenya. In the 1980s, the popular expectation was that the magic wand of political transition would steer Africa in the direction of rapid economic development. It is true that political stability is a pre-requisite for economic growth and development. It is also true that no economy flourishes in a situation of uncertainty. Nations cannot develop if they are unstable. We have seen nations and cities destroyed by unacceptable electoral outcomes. We have equally seen once happy, contended and thriving people becoming homeless and hopeless in Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps and forced migration to other countries on account of failed elections. Under such circumstances, no meaningful development can occur. Democratic transition through periodic and credible elections is the best way to ensure certainty that will guarantee and sustain political stability.
However, I am not unaware that despite the observance of the routine of elections and increasingly using the quality of elections as the indicator of the quality of democracy across many African countries, concerns remain that elections have largely failed to be credible, free and fair, and more importantly, that governments are not accountable to citizens. Nigeria similarly experienced such swings between post-independence democratisation, military interventions and reversals of democratic practices which led to calls for effective electoral reforms that the Commission has been consolidating since 2011, after some aspects of the recommendations of the Uwais Electoral Reform Committee were adopted for implementation.
Since then, INEC continues is striving to ensure that through elections, Nigerians can make periodic choices where their votes determine the basis for holding elective offices and therefore representation in Government. If votes do not count, then of course, the consequential benefits derivable to the electorate would not be possible because elected office holders would not be accountable.
PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTIONS
The Commission has embarked on diligent preparations to ensure that the 2019 general election is credible and meets the goals of “election integrity” that embodies the notion of inclusiveness, transparency and accountability by ensuring that established rules governing the conduct of elections are fully, fairly and impartially enforced. We continue to think innovatively while at the same time consolidating several tools to address the challenges of electoral service delivery in Nigeria in order to ensure credible elections. Some of the measures introduced so far are:
i. Completion of the planning processes, involving the initiation, formulation and validation of the Strategic Plan (SP), the Strategic Programme of Action (SPA) and the Election Project Plan (EPP) covering the current electoral cycle 2017-2021. This was done with the full participation of all stakeholders.
ii. The consolidation of the full biometric voter registration through the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR). This is the first time that the exercise was carried out continuously as against doing so intermittently on the eve of elections. Over a period of sixteen (16) months from 27th April 2017 to 31st August 2018, the Commission embarked upon the registration of eligible citizens as required by Law. In spite of challenges encountered, the opportunity was given to citizens who turned eighteen (18) years and those who could not register in the past to do so. At the end of the exercise, some 14.5 million Nigerians were added to the existing register of about 70 million. This brings the register for the 2019 General Election to 84.2 million. However, the Commission expects the number to drop slightly after running the Automatic Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) to check possible multiple registrants as well the just concluded display of the register nationwide for claims and objections.
iii. Learning from the experience of the 2015 General Elections, the Commission adopted a new approach to the printing of the Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). The CVR exercise was conducted on quarterly basis and so was the printing of the PVCs. By doing so, the number of cards available for collection by citizens will reduce considerably well ahead of the elections. For instance, all the cards for citizens registered in 2017 have been delivered to the States. For 2018 registrations, the cards for those registered in the first and second quarters have similarly been printed and delivered to the States. The cards for the 4.1 million new registrants for the third quarter of 2018 will be ready by the end of this month (i.e. November 2018). This will also include all the cards for those who applied for intra and inter-State transfers as well as replacement of damaged or defaced cards. The Commission is working on a new approach to the collection of the PVCs by registered voters which will commence in early December and continue until at least one week to the 2019 General Elections.
iv. Again, learning from the experience of previous elections, the Commission has stabilized the electoral calendar by announcing election dates in advance. The principle was first set out that going forward, Nigeria’s national elections will be held on the third Saturday of the month of February of each election year while State elections will be held two weeks later. On this basis, the Commission fixed Saturday 16th February 2019 for Presidential and National Assembly elections while Governorship and State Assembly elections will hold on Saturday 2nd March 2019. It is therefore possible to determine the dates of future election thereby engendering certainty in the electoral calendar. The electoral commission, political parties, security agencies, civil society organisations, the media, national and international observers etc. can plan in advance. The Commission believes that the dates for holding elections should not be kept in secret.
v. No more use of incidence forms. Instead, the manual register of voters has been redesigned to provide for a box for thumb printing and telephone number of any voter whose biometric is not authenticated by the Smart Card Reader (SCR). This will allow for a better check in the event of litigation.
vi. Separate accreditation and voting have been harmonized. Since 2016, the Commission has been doing simultaneous accreditation and voting.
vii. The Commission has introduced the poster (EC60E) containing same details of polling unit results (EC8A) issued to party agents. The poster is pasted at each polling unit for public information in order to enhance credibility and transparency of the result management process.
viii. Greater engagement on the role of security agencies in elections resulting in the suspension of morning parade to enable personnel and materials arrive the polling units on time.
ix. The installation of trackers in the vehicles conveying sensitive materials to forestall any attempt to hijack or diversion.
x. Introduction of magnifying glasses and tactile jacket/braille guide to enable visually impaired voters to vote unassisted. These new innovations were introduced in the Anambra, Ekiti and Osun Governorship elections.
xi. Improved logistics to enable the Commission deploy personnel and materials in time for the commencement of polls at 8am. For instance, the Commission achieved almost 100% deployment in the 2018 Osun Governorship election. We are working to ensure greater capacity to deploy in the 2019 General Elections. It is a huge task, easily the biggest logistical operation a nation can undertake in peacetime. The forward and reverse movement of personnel and materials to and from 119,973 (approx. 120,000) polling units is enormous. So too are the activities that will take place in the various collation and declaration centres spread across 8,809 Registration Areas (Wards) in 774 Local Government Areas and 36 States of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) to enable the declaration of results in 1,558 Constituencies into which election will be held in 2019.
xii. The functionality of the SCRs has been enhanced. Again, in the Ekiti and Osun Governorship elections, the reported cases of SCR malfunction in relation to the number of polling units to which they were deployed was statistically insignificant. However, we are still working to endure optimal performance.
As the Commission is preparing for the 2019 General Elections, we have also been conducting off-season elections, the largest number in the nation’s history so far. The elections are broken into the following categories:
i. Eighty (81) court-ordered re-run elections following successful litigations relating to the conduct of the 2015 General Elections and the 2016 FCT Area Council elections, consisting of 10 Senatorial Districts, 17 Federal Constituencies (House of Representatives), 53 State Constituencies (House of Assembly) and 1 Ward (Councillorship Constituency).
ii. Seventy-five (75) end of tenure elections to the offices of Governors in Kogi, Baylesa, Edo, Ondo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun States as well as the 68 Area Council Chairmen and Councillors in the FCT.
iii. Thirty-five (35) bye-elections in 22 States and the FCT caused by the death or resignation of serving members of the National or State Assemblies.
Although the off-season elections divert attention from planning for the 2019 General Elections, they enable us to fine-tune and test run many of our innovations and plans. The overall effect on the electoral process is that our elections are getting better in terms of preparations, Election Day logistics (EDL) and outcome. Although a lot of work needs to be done, the Commission has improved on the deployment of personnel for elections, addressed some of the challenges to the functionality of new technological innovations for elections and able to collate, transmit and declare results of elections more accurately and speedily. Interestingly, there are fewer litigation challenging the outcome of elections than we experienced in the past. So far, out of the 191 elections conducted, only four (4) have been successfully challenged in Court. Even so, the Commission was not ordered to re-run the entire elections. In two (2) cases, the Commission was ordered to issue Certificates of Return to the petitioners while in the other two (2) cases, elections were repeated in a few polling units. The number of successful litigations constitute only 2% of the 191 off-season elections.
CHALLENGES
Clearly, the Commission has recorded considerable success in consolidating our electoral democracy since the 2015 General Elections. However, there are a number of challenges as we prepare for the 2019 General Elections some of which are enumerated as follows:
i. “Do or Die” mentality of some members of the political class that election must be won at all cost remains a major source of concern as we approach the 2019 elections. Many of our political actors are yet to imbibe the true spirit of democracy which is not just about access to elective and non-elective offices in government by all means. Respect for the process is the hallmark of a democrat. Democracy and democrats are two sides of the same coin and one cannot exist without the other.
ii. Vote-buying: The growing epidemic of voter-inducement at polling units in some of the recent elections constitute a violation of our laws. This conduct is out-rightly illegal and a clear threat to efforts at entrenching credible elections. The Commission has responded by re-examining the configuration and administration of the polling units on election day in order to make it difficult for the voter to expose the marked ballot paper between the voting cubicle and the ballot box. In Furthermore, we have recently introduced restriction on the use of mobile phones and other photographic devices by voters in the cubicles. Similarly, we are working with other relevant security and other relevant agencies for enforcement of the law against vote-buying in particular and violations of campaign finance in general. All these will be vigorously enforced in the General Elections. At the same time, the Commission is open to other ideas from all stakeholders that will assist in addressing the menace.
iii. Lack of Internal Democracy within Political Parties. This is of great concern to the Commission. Rancorous primaries within political parties has already resulted in a plethora of unprecedented pre-election litigations. So far, the Commission has been joined in 273 court actions. With 32 petitions and 220 requests for Certified True Copies of documents from aggrieved aspirants, the number of litigations will rise higher. Under the extant laws, pre-election cases can go up to the Supreme Court. Apart from the cost to the Commission of legal representation in these cases, the possibility of nullification and consequent court-ordered re-run of elections after the 2019 General Elections is high.
iv. Incendiary Speech: This remains a worrisome issue as we approach the 2019 General elections. Already, the atmosphere is getting charged. Campaign for Presidential and National Assembly elections will commence on 18th November 2018 which is just three days away. The Commission shares the view of the majority of Nigerians that campaigns should focus on issues that will positively transform the lives of citizens and uplift the nation rather focus on parties, candidates and their supporters. Obviously, this is a wider issue involving not only the political actors, security agencies and the regulatory and professional bodies in the media industry. For clarity, INEC does not support censorship which is antithetical to democratic values but we wish to appeal to those who exercise their legitimate rights to self-expression, including those who may hide behind the anonymity provided by new technology, to be circumspect.
v. Security: Election must take place in all parts of Nigeria. Credible elections must be inclusive. Citizens have the right to free choice on election day irrespective of their views or other circumstances such as physical challenge or displacement arising from insecurity. Election security is beyond the responsibilities and capabilities of INEC. While we focus on our well publicised processes and procedures during elections, the Commission will continue to engage with various security agencies under the auspices of the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to secure the election environment and ensure neutrality and professionalism in the conduct of their operatives during elections.
vi. Impunity and lack of consequences for electoral offenders. The level and sophistication of electoral offences like vote buying and other vices in clear violation of the provisions of various laws remain issues that threaten the democratic process. If wrong conduct in breach of established rules are not punished, they would be repeated with tragic consequences for our democracy and the nation. The establishment of the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal recommended by the Uwais, Lemu and Nnamani Committees and advocated by several individuals and groups is long overdue. It is encouraging to note that a bill is currently under consideration by the National Assembly to establish the Commission/Tribunal.
vii. Impact of Litigations and Conflicting Court Orders. As was the case in some of the off-season elections conducted by the Commission since the 2015 General Elections, the number of litigations and conflicting orders by courts of coordinate jurisdictions is one of the challenges faced by the Commission. With particular reference to candidature, litigants approach different courts and serve the Commission with often contradictory orders on the same case. Under the 1999 Constitution (as amended), court orders must be obeyed by all persons and authorities within the Federation of Nigeria. The choice of which order to obey puts the Commission in a difficult situation.
CONCLUSION
I began by acknowledging the organic relationship between political transition and economic development. I also underscored INEC’s continued effort to improve the conduct of elections in Nigeria and the challenges to the conduct of free, fair and credible elections, especially as the 2019 General Elections is just three months away. We are not unaware that it is a tough task. While we are determined to leave no stone unturned, we know that INEC alone cannot do the job. So we are counting on the goodwill and collaborative partnership of other stakeholders.
I have stated at various fora that a badly conducted election is a recipe for chaos, while a well-conducted election fosters peace and political stability. There can be no peaceful or sustainable political transition and the consequential economic and other benefits to citizens without credible and peaceful elections through a transparent and inclusive electoral process. In order to achieve this goal, all stakeholders – governments, election administrators, security agencies, civil society groups, the media, political parties, candidates and their supporters, women, youth, persons with disability and minorities, must play their part consistent with the provisions of the law and in tandem with best international practice. I trust that the experts so carefully selected by Realnews for the panel discussion will shed more than sufficient light on the economic impact of Africa’s political transition during the panel discussion.
Once again, I convey my appreciation to the management of Realnews for the honour to deliver the 6th Anniversary Lecture and I thank you all for your attention.
POLITICAL TRANSITIONS AND AFRICA’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Preparations for Nigeria’s 2019 General Elections, being a paper presented by Professor Mahmood Yakubu, Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at Realnews Magazine’s 6th Anniversary Lecture, Sheraton Hotel, Lagos, 15th November 2018.
