When Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Bola Tinubu woke up on the morning of February 25, 2023, not one of them would have imagined that of the 87.2 million people who collected their Permanent Voters Cards (93.3% collection rate) leading up to the general elections, the winner of the presidential election would poll less than nine million votes in an event that also recorded an abysmal 24.9 million votes – a paltry 29% voter turnout – the lowest since the current democratic dispensation in 1999.
But why was there such a low turnout of voters this election cycle despite recording the highest number of possible voters since 1999? Why did this happen? The answer may be simpler than you think…or maybe not.
In the run-up to the 2023 general elections, Nigeria faced a severe cash crunch, caused by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Naira redesign, which eased out the old 200, 500, and 1,000 Naira denominations, and introduced new ones. The new notes, however, were not adequately distributed, causing protests and seeming unrest in some parts of the country. That, and the scarcity of petrol, made the conduct of the elections doubtful, even if for a fleeting moment.
However, none of that seemed to deter the voting public, especially the youth, many of whom would be voting for the very first time. This was evident in the collection of PVCs, an exercise that had been concluded weeks earlier. The 2023 presidential election, it seemed, was going to record the highest voter turnout in the history of Nigerian presidential elections. That, sadly, would not be the case.
Let’s Rewind – A Bit of History
In the 1999 general elections, 57.9 million Nigerians registered to vote, with 30.2 million of them eventually voting in the presidential election, making a voter turnout of 52.1%. To be fair, a lot was riding on that election because it was the first democratic election in Nigeria since the annulled presidential election of 1993. It had been a six-year period of military reign (between 1993 and 1999) and a total of 16 years since the country had a democratic government. Perhaps, there was a lot of hope and enthusiasm toward the 1999 elections as a vast majority of Nigerians had grown disillusioned by the successive military regimes.
In 2003, four years after the new democratic dispensation, there was an increase in the number of registered voters with 60.8 million people registering, while 42 million of those eventually decided the outcome – representing a 69% voter turnout.
By 2007, there was a change in the dynamic: although the number of registered voters had increased to 61.5 million, there was a drop in the voter turnout, with only 35.3 million people voting, representing a voter turnout of 58%.
The 2011 and 2015 elections recorded varying numbers that represented an overall drop-off in voter turnout. During the 2011 elections, there was an increase in voter registration (73.5 million) and an eventual voting number of 39.4 million, making a 53.6% voter turnout – an almost 5% drop from 2007. By 2015, there was a slump in the number of registered voters (67.4 million), and 29.4 million voters, representing a 43.6% voter turnout – a 10% drop-off from the previous cycle. The number of registered voters went up again in 2019 (82 million), but only 28.6 million of those voted, making a voter turnout of 34.8%.
It is clear that the voting numbers in the presidential elections have experienced a consistent decline since 2007, with the 2023 election experiencing the lowest voter turnout.
Is This Necessarily a Bad Thing?
Well, it depends on how one sees it, but overall, it doesn’t look good if a country’s population either refuses to vote or is prevented from voting. For instance, Brazil (with a similar national population as Nigeria) had its general elections in October of 2022. In the presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva scored 60.3 million votes to beat the then-incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, who scored 58.2 million votes. That election recorded a voter turnout of 79%.
By contrast, the highest voter turnout Nigeria has had since 1999 was 69% in 2003, and even then, only 42 million people voted against the over 118 million people who voted in Brazil’s presidential election last year.
In a different but related context, Rwanda (population: 13.4 million) recorded a voter turnout of 98% in 2017 – the highest in the world.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election in Anambra state (population: 5.5 million), Charles Chukwuma Soludo emerged winner by scoring 112,229 votes – just 6.6% of eligible votes. Why did less than 200,000 people decide who governs 5.5 million people?
So, are Nigerians averse to elections and voting or could there be other reasons?
What Could Be The Problem?
It’s hard to say what the problem could be or if there is any at all. However, consistent voter apathy does raise concerns and questions: Elections often serve as a referendum on the ruling class – a vote of confidence or a vote of no confidence. This is even more important in a country like Nigeria, where the federal government wields huge influence and determines almost everything. As a result, a good or bad federal government – and more specifically, the president – has an effect on the entire citizenry, irrespective of social class. Therefore, one would expect the people to consider elections as important as they would their private businesses, but that isn’t always the case.
So, why is this so?
It’s difficult to say, but two theories quickly come to mind when all things are considered:
- Nigeria may not have as many people as it is claimed (the 2006 national census said Nigeria had a population of 140 million people but it is now reported to be over 200 million)
- Nigerians do not truly believe they can effectively determine who leads them via elections (in other words, they do not believe their votes count)
For the purpose of fairness, one cannot make a categorical statement on Nigeria’s population since there has not been a national census for 17 years, although the World Bank projects a 2.4% annual population growth (the global world population growth is 1.1% annually). If this holds true, then it means Nigeria’s population would have grown by 40.8% since 2006, making a total of around 197 million people. However, Nigeria’s true population remains a mystery.
Secondly, there is a widespread belief that elections in Nigeria never reflect the true wish of the people. Since 1999, there have been allegations of election irregularities and manipulation. Even the 2015 presidential election which is largely deemed the freest and fairest in the current democratic dispensation had allegations of irregularities and manipulation (remember Godsday Orubebe?)
So, what is the problem?
What Does the 2023 Presidential Election Say?
There is something curious about the 2023 presidential election numbers. Despite having the highest number of eligible voters (those who collected PVCs), it recorded the lowest voter turnout, why? For the first time since 1999, there was either no incumbent on the ballot or no candidate wholly backed by the outgoing president. Also, the 2023 presidential election was the first time since 1999 that it could have gone one of three ways; it had always been a two-horse race.
Then there was the “Peter Obi Wave” that swept through millennials and Gen-Zs, which, quite frankly, contributed to the spike in voter registration. So, why was there a low voter turnout? Did they go through the hassles of registration only not to show up on Election Day?
As explained earlier, there were issues of fuel and naira notes scarcity, but there is no evidence to suggest any of those significantly impacted voter turnout. If anything, there were reports of massive voter turnout in most polling units, which then leads to the question: why did it not reflect in the numbers?
For one, there were instances where INEC failed to begin the voting exercise on time. The electoral body had set voting to commence at 8.30 AM, but in many polling units, voting did not start until around 10 AM.
Then there were reported cases of violence, voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, and non-voting in several polling units across the country. For some polling units where voting reportedly didn’t take place, results were announced. - Put these factors together, then you begin to understand why elections in Nigeria would record ‘low voter turnout’ because even in cases where people show up to vote, voting is either disrupted by violence or ballot box snatching or INEC officials just not showing up because they were held hostage by desperate politicians or they’re in cahoots with said politicians.
In summary, it would seem that voter suppression by political parties and politicians and the overall lack of transparency in the entire electoral process contribute to reducing the number of Nigerians who ultimately decide who leads them.
